Kinect will sell 25 million by 2014
Do analysts believe Kinect can do the business for Microsoft? Yes - by the end of 2014 they say Kinect will have sold 25 million units.
Another way of looking at that is one in three Xbox 360 owners will have bought Kinect by then, because they also believe the total console installed base will be 74 million.
That forecast was made to Eurogamer by Screen Digest analyst Piers Harding-Rolls, and his peer Colin Sebastian from Lazard Capital Markets reckons that makes sense.
"That seems like a reasonable estimate," Sebastian told Eurogamer. "Assuming that Microsoft offers price reductions over time to drive demand, and that the Xbox 360 continues to sell.
"The other key variable will be the availability of quality software, and whether third-party publishers can bring to market compelling applications for Kinect."
Wedbush Morgan analyst Michael Pachter dived deeper into those numbers. "There are 40 million Xbox 360s out there. Presumably, Microsoft will sell around 8 million a year for the next few years, so they could get up to 70 - 75 million by the end of 2014," he calculated.
But Pachter was less keen to forecast numbers overall, calling it "foolish" without information on bundles and pricing.
"Let's say that the device costs the $56 it was estimated to cost and that the cost comes down to around $30 with volume manufacture. What happens if Microsoft decides to include one with every console?" he reasoned. "Then they will sell 32 million, plus whatever they sell before the bundle. What if they cut the price to $30 and include a free game? Then they'll sell 70 million.
"It's simply too early for me to guess on Kinect," concluded Pachter. "I'll go with the 74 million Xbox 360 estimate, as that presumes sales at a constant rate the next four years, which is not a particularly bold prediction."
http://www.eurogamer.net/articles/2010-11-19-kinect-will-sell-25-million-by-2014