As the glow of E3 slowly fades into darkness, my current mindset in regards to video games is mostly sitting around, replaying Borderlands out of boredom, waiting for Starcraft II and Halo: Reach to come out.
But with little else to do, I must continue reflecting on Sony’s Move and Microsoft’s Kinect, the two pieces of technology that are essentially replacing the need for a new console generation. At least according to their creators.
As I think about it more and more though, I have to wonder how either system believes it’s going to be a success in the current console climate, and who exactly they’re thinking will be supporting this new technology.
The way I look at it, there are four main groups of people that make up the vast majority of the market who will all not buy Move or Kinect for different reasons.
The Family that Only Owns a Wii – Their kids aren’t that into video games, or else they’d have other consoles. They bought a Wii thinking that it would be a good family activity, but now rarely play it.
Why won’t they bite? – If they don’t care much for gaming to begin with, do you think they’ll really drop $500 for a console, a motion control system and a game? Though these people might have bought into the motion control gimmick initially, you won’t fool them twice.
The Hardcore Gamer – These are the kinds of people (like myself) who own either a PS3 or 360 already, and have been laughing at the Wii for years, or bought one a long time ago for Super Smash Bros. or Mario Galaxy and have not really played it since.
Why won’t they bite? – They think that some of the tech is decently cool, such as voice controlling a DVD with Kinect or complete 1:1 movement with Move, but with the current slate of upcoming games for both devices being mainly Wii Sports clones and dancing titles, there’s no reason to drop $150 at this point. But even once games we like start employing the tech, it’s going to be hard justifying why they’d rather play Gears of War in mime for hours on end rather than simply using a controller.
The Family Who Owns a Wii AND Another Console – It’s clear this tech is aimed mainly at families, so we’ll head back in that direction. Some families are more gaming oriented, and they might actually have sprung for more than one console for their kids
Why won’t they bite? – This might be the group most likely to buy either piece of tech, but I don’t think it will work. If they already own a Wii, it’s going to be hard to justify paying the extra cash for something that is really only a slight upgrade to their existing motion control set-up.
The Non-Console Owner – A family or an individual who has avoided the entire new generation of consoles. Either they’re still rocking an N64 or a PS2, or they just don’t have an interest in games, and Microsoft and Sony are hoping their “anyone can play” systems will lure them in.
Why won’t they bite? – If they weren’t seduced in by the sensation that was the Wii sweeping the nation with its promise of video games for all, they won’t drop double the cash for a similar system now.
So who does that leave? I really only see two groups who will buy either system.
The Hardcore Gamer/Technophile – The gamer with a bit of cash in his pocket who wants to have all the latest tech, regardless of how much he actually uses it a month from now. Has all three consoles already, might as well get all the latest add ons for them.
The Family with Only a 360 or PS3 – Since they don’t have a Wii, they figure it might be a good way to turn their son’s 8 hour Call of Duty binges into family time by purchasing Kinect or Move for a more casual experience. But if they hadn’t gotten a Wii by this point, I don’t think they have much interest in casual gaming, and the parents are content to let their kids do their own thing.
But even if these two groups jump on Move and Kinect, the sales of either aren’t going to approach anything close to the numbers the Wii has managed to put up.
This begs the question, how far are Sony and Microsoft willing to go with this tech? Do they truly believe that motion controls are the future of gaming? Will they devote massive amounts of time and resources to make sure that all future games start to move toward using that tech instead of say, focusing on building an entirely new console?
And I think that last part is really the answer. We need a new console generation, or for at least a new console generation to be announced. The Xbox 360 came out in 2005, and it’s clear we’re going to head into 2011 without even a hint that a new version of the 360 or any other console is on the way.
I just don’t see myself, or many gamers like me, ever springing for this tech as an add-on. But make it a standard part of an entirely new console with massive processing power and next-level graphics, and I’m on board, I’d pay $400-$500 for that.
Motion controls have unfortunately stalled what should be the natural evolution of video games, and now we’re actually moving backward in terms of progress. Yes, the tech is a step forward in a lot of ways, but the games themselves are three steps back, and are little more than minigames or party activities at this point. I’m not saying there isn’t a market for that, but it can only take you so far. And once motion controls become a MANDATORY part of our favorite games (like in the upcoming Wii Zelda title), there might be something of a revolt within the industry.
Sony and Microsoft, just be careful not to put all your eggs in one basket. As you’re flailing your arms and legs around in your living room, you might knock it over and crack them all open.
Soll er sich einreden, was er will und uns seine nicht vorhandenen Englisch-Kenntnisse demonstrieren
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