Vom avs
BDA-Präsident macht sich Gedanken über mögliche HDDVD-Exklusivität von Warner:
I just listened to this interview will Bill Shepard head of the BD group. (
http://bigtech.blogs.fortune.cnn.com/2007/11/02/expect-blu-rayhdtv-bundles-for-the-holidays/) He seemed like a good spokesman for BD. i got the impression that he was answering honestly (and wisely not answering when appropriate).
A few things jumped out at me:
1) He was of the opinion that the $99 price point is likely is here to stay. He basically said that you cant unring that bell. He expected that HD DVDs would continue to be sold at a steep discount throughout the holidays. He suggested that this might erode CE support.
But he didn't present a reason why the BD could be sold at a higher price gieven consumer expectation about the HD price. He didn't indicate that BD prices would fall in line with HD prices. It seemed as if he was prepared to stand or fall based on the PS3 install base.
2) He said that Warner was the only studio likely to become HD DVD exclusive in the near term. He said that wouldn't happen unless there was a dramatic shift in the player sales that would overcome the PS3 install base. He did NOT predict that Warner might become BD exclusive anytime soon. His hope was that they stay neutral. But he did float out the scenario that would cause it to happen: some number of A2s being sold.
He sounded much stronger when it came to Disney and Fox as opposed to Warner. The discussion gave me the impression that he was concerned about Warner.
3) He placed a lot of stock in the sales ratio of the movies. But he said something that struck me as a bit inconsistant. He noted that the BD sales ratios were better. But he also observed that BD had a stronger slate of exclusive movies. He said that based on that stronger slate he thought BD would sell more product over Christmas.
It made me wonder whether he was suggesting that the converse was true if/when HD happened to have a slate of stronger exclusives than it would sell more movies. (Say about the time that Iron Man, Indiana Jones, Hellboy 2 and the Dark Knight come out on disk). It made me wonder if Warner really cares about current software sales if the disparity on any given week can be explained by the quality of the offerings rather than the desire for a particular format.
4) Finally I noticed that Shepard was very careful not to make ANY prediction or statement about the effect of Toshiba selling a certain volume of units. For example he didn't say something like "if they don't sell X units, they are doomed." It seemed as if he didn't want to set up anything that could have been read as a "victory" condition even when expressed in the negative.
That made me think that the BD folks are really shaken by this move and don't have any meaningful projections on how it might play out. (If they did, I would assume they would have set an even higher bar and claimed that was what was required to "win." It was obvious that they didn't know how high to set the bar to create a standard that Toshiba couldn't reach.
As I said, it was an interest interview. I suggest both HD and BD fans check it out.
