The gap between the original Xbox and Xbox 360 ended up as four years - which will be similar with Scorpio and Xbox One. But the 'abandon ship' call has come two-and-a-half years after Xbox One's launch, and we're also told that Scorpio is definitely not actually the next console, promise - because no-one is left behind. Confused? Me too.
At this E3, Microsoft abandoned the original Xbox One vision in favour of another future, under the sign of Scorpio, in the course of which those who bought into the Xbox One have become second-rate consumers. The Xbox One is no longer an aspirational platform, somewhere you can expect unique or best-in-class experiences. It is now the Sainsbury's Basics entertainment system.
(In the interest of fairness, it's worth pointing out that Sony, by refusing to talk about PlayStation Neo at E3, has only delayed having to face many of these same questions. With a narrower power gap between basic and premium consoles, and no PC alternative, the situation for PS4 owners isn't quite as stark - but as Martin pointed out recently, it's still uncomfortable.)
I watched the Xbox conference looking for reassurance. Now I think the Xbox One will go down as a misfire in video game history and, in the longer term, a piece of hardware that hastened the end of its own market.
The future outlined at E3 makes Xbox One, if not obsolete, at the very least an unattractive option. Consoles are always behind the PC technology curve, which is ameliorated by their longevity and software. Xbox One is now not only just a weak PC, but one whose future software will be available on real PCs, and to top it off a new target SKU has been announced 18 months before release.
Businesses have certainties - like units of hardware sold - but also more ineffable factors such as trust. A great brand is a powerful thing, and a great brand is what Xbox aspires to be. The future that Xbox has laid out depends on it being, beyond hardware, a brand that can create a market across different devices. Xbox One, Xbox One S, Xbox Apps, Xbox Scorpio - and all of the games running on PC too.